Evaluation of ArcIOPS sea ice forecasting products during the ninth CHINARE in summer 2018
Xi Liang1*, Fu Zhao1, Chunhua Li1, Lin Zhang1, Bingrui Li2
1 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China;
2 Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China
Numerical sea ice forecasting products during the ninth CHINARE from Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System (ArcIOPS) of National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center are evaluated against satellite-retrieved sea ice concentration data, in-situ sea ice thickness observations, and sea ice products from Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). The results show that ArcIOPS forecasts reliable sea ice concentration and thickness evolution. Deviations of the 168 h sea ice concentration and thickness forecasts with respect to the observations are less than 0.2 and 0.36 m. Comparison between outputs of the latest version of ArcIOPS and that of its previous version shows that the latest version has a substantial improvement on sea ice concentration forecasts due to data assimilation of new observational component, the sea surface temperature. Meanwhile, the sea ice volume product of the latest version is more close to the PIOMAS product. In the future, with more and more kinds of observations to be assimilated, the high-resolution version of ArcIOPS will be put into operational running and benefit Chinese scientific and commercial activities in the Arctic Ocean.
ArcIOPS, CHINARE, sea ice forecasts, validation